A Closed-Loop Cardiovascular Model of the Supine-To-Stand Manoeuvre: Implications for Falls

Can a computational cardiovascular model reproduce beat-to-beat blood pressure and heart rate responses to standing in older adults, and do model parameters differ by fall history?

Older adults from the Nijmegen Radboud University PROHEALTH study with continuous Finapres recordings; exact sample size not reported, grouped by whether they had fallen at least once in the past year

Computational modelling study: a 23-compartment closed-loop lumped-parameter cardiovascular model with baroreflex and cardiopulmonary reflex control, with 31 parameters fitted by evolutionary optimisation to cohort — what this means-averaged supine-to-stand data for fallers vs. non-fallers

• Model fit to averaged data gave normalised RMSE of 10.6% for the faller group and 9.6% for the non-faller group across systolic BP, diastolic BP, and heart rate
• Four of the 31 fitted parameters differed significantly between the two group-average fits: baroreflex reference heart rate, a baroreflex transfer function parameter, transient external muscle pressure on standing, and total blood volume
• No individual-level accuracy or predictive performance was reported; all results are at the population-average level

This early modelling work suggests that continuous orthostatic haemodynamic data may capture baroreflex and blood volume differences linked to fall history, though it is not yet an individual-level tool for fall risk assessment in practice.